This example of the decision-making fallacy gives us a simple conclusion: do not let your former glory ruin your future. Everything will change eventually, we need to adapt.
- After the acquisition of Nokia, Microsoft keeps the Windows (Phone version) as its mobile devices OS. This strategy ends miserably with a $7 billion loss.
- Lionel Messi – maybe the greatest player of all time – relies on his dribbling skill. As the player ages, the sharpness of his play deteriorates significantly.
- Cristiano Ronaldo – Messi’s greatest rival – begins his career as a dribbler, with many tricks, flips flop. But as he ages, he changes his play style. CR7 becomes more passive, waits in the penalty box, and becomes one of the deadliest poachers. He does not dribble much. He becomes much more efficient. His physical peak has been long surpassed, but he keeps delivering prestigious titles for the club and national team.
What do we learn about decision-making here? Let’s elaborate.
Example of Decision-Making Fallacy from Business:
What was an asset, becomes a liability. Microsoft.
When you saw a long queue in front of a large store in the 90s, it is not the first sale of the newest iPhone. It was possibly the launch of the newest Microsoft Office. It sounds surprising, but it is what it is. Microsoft is that popular at that time.
Every new version of Windows is an ecstasy, a curious, adrenalin.
Because it is too good, Microsoft become more and more reliant on it. Even when the mobile trend wave comes, Microsoft stubbornly keeps that Windows for its mobile device. In 2014, The Redmond-based company acquired Nokia as hardware, for the OS, Microsoft has its own – The Windows Phone.
The rest is history.
The lack of developer support means a lack of apps brings miserable results. Windows Phone, despite its unique UI (we love it), end its short life. Today, the Microsoft smartphone flagship, the Surface Duo, uses Android as its OS.
Example of Decision-Making Fallacy from Sport:
When God becomes Human
Dumping your best card maybe is not a good idea, especially when that card is overpowering. Lionel Messi hates that idea.
In the 2009 – 2015 period, Lionel Messi is unstoppable. It was magic. The opponent needs about two or three men to stop this genius’ dribble and killer pass. During that period, La Pulga delivers three UEFA Champions League (let’s call it UCL) titles, the most prestigious trophy for European Club.
In 2016, FC Barcelona, a club where Messi plays, was knocked out by Atlético Madrid in the quarter-final. Lionel Messi’s idea to overcome this situation next year is simple, give me more ball. Then the GOAT changes his position deeper in midfield, gets more ball, and does more playmaking.
FC Barcelona then never wins UCL. Actually, it is so simple analyzing this situation. When you are aging, your leg, your speed, and your acceleration will decrease dramatically. It is never a good idea to rely on decaying things.
Example of Decision-Making Efficiency from Sport:
When Batman beat The Superman
Cristiano Ronaldo is simply human. But he does a lot to become better and better.
At a young age, he is a dribbler. He is a trickster with speed, acceleration, and fake movement. During his peak age, Ronaldo only delivers 2 titles in Champions League (2008 and 2014). He faced Lionel Messi two times in this championship and lost all. In UCL 2009 Final, Rome, The prolific winger could not do much against Lionel Messi’s side. He and his team Manchester United lost 2-0.
Another defeat is in UCL Semifinal 2011. In front of its own supporter, Real Madrid was eliminated by Messi’s magic when the Argentinian dribbled the ball from the midfield, passing one two three and paralyzing a whole Santiago Bernabeu.
Another defeat is in UCL Semifinal 2011. In front of its own supporter, Real Madrid was eliminated by Messi’s magic when the Argentinian dribbled the ball from the midfield, passing one two three and paralyzing a whole Santiago Bernabéu.
He and Real Madrid win the UCL three times in a row from 2017 to 2020. No club in the modern era ever achieved it. During this period, Ronaldo’s role becomes more centric and more scoring. He transformed into an efficient predator in the penalty box. He relies more on his jump, accuracy, and response instead of power and speed.
Ronaldo, the narcissistic player, dump the best card he ever had. Leaving it all for winning.
Always Open Minded
What is your profession? Academic background?
Never too reliant on it. Having them is good, it is part of your winning formula. In life, in business, and in relationships. But you are not your academic background. You are not your title. You are more than that. Be like Ronaldo, be like the champion. Dump your best card if necessary.
Cristiano Ronaldo of Microsoft
When taking the CEO seat at Microsoft, Satya Nadella inherits an organization that was too reliant on its glory.
On his first day, Satya writes,’ our industry only appreciates innovation, not the past achievement’. Then he navigates Microsoft into a new paradigm. he moves the centerpiece of growth from Windows to Azure, Microsoft cloud services.
His tagline is mobile first cloud first.
This is the first step in how he revives Microsoft.
Dumping your best card maybe not be a bad idea.