Example of The Decision-Making Fallacy: From OS to Football

Some example of the decision making fallacy teach you that ineffective decision bring you unwanted outcome
Decision-making is vital in every aspect of life
Image by vectorjuice freepik

This example of the decision-making fallacy gives us a simple conclusion: do not let your former glory ruin your future. Everything will change eventually, we need to adapt.

  1. After the acquisition of Nokia, Microsoft keeps the Windows (Phone version) as its mobile devices OS. This strategy ends miserably with a $7 billion loss.
  2. Lionel Messi – maybe the greatest player of all time – relies on his dribbling skill. As the player ages, the sharpness of his play deteriorates significantly.
  3. Cristiano Ronaldo – Messi’s greatest rival – begins his career as a dribbler, with many tricks, flips flop. But as he ages, he changes his play style. CR7 becomes more passive, waits in the penalty box, and becomes one of the deadliest poachers. He does not dribble much. He becomes much more efficient. His physical peak has been long surpassed, but he keeps delivering prestigious titles for the club and national team.

What do we learn about decision-making here? Let’s elaborate.

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Competitive Analysis UX: How Mediocre Product Win

Competitive Analysis UX allows us to understand how customers see our products.
How a customer interacts with the product dictates its success.
Source: freepik

From the customer perspective, Disney is representative of a perfect User Experience. It tells a magical story in movies, then actualizes it in the real world through the Theme Park. Our competitive analysis UX (User Experience) tries to identify another company with a similar edge.

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Intel Stock Valuation: Calculated Speculation


The key point of Intel stock valuation:

  1. Intel’s market cap is 148 Billion (end of July 2022) with 19.8 Billion earnings in 2021. It means that you need 7 years to break even. Too long for a company with no growth prospect like Intel.
  2. Even when the CHIP program is passed and executed, it will not boost Intel’s earnings significantly.
  3. It is not difficult to say that we don’t recommend investing in Intel. But it doesn’t mean that the stock price will not rise in the future.
  4. Like the management says, maybe this is the bottom. But we don’t know how long Intel will be in this pit. But smart investors still could exploit this situation.
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Competitive Analysis of Amazon: Against The Blue Sky

  1. Amazon Web Services (AWS) offers an intuitively easy User Interface, flexibility, affordability along with more features. But this isn’t enough to prevent its customer to use the competitor Microsoft Azure (or even Google Cloud) as a secondary cloud provider (as backup). This circumstance allows customers to migrate completely to AWS rivals.
  2. Amazon is busy building economies of scope as a competitive advantage like its acquisition of Medical One, a telecare company, instead of creating or strengthening its cloud ecosystem.
  3. In the long run, we believe the market share of AWS could be slightly eroded gradually by more intense competition due to a lack of switching costs. We think Amazon should take care of this issue seriously, especially when the cloud is its most prolific segment.
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Basic Investing Strategy: How to Win The Game


A basic investing strategy is about durability.
Investing is about keep walking, not sprinting, and quit
images source: freepik.com

Too Long Didn’t Read: for Basic Investing Strategy:

  1. In the long run, earnings and cash flow matter most.
  2. An economic moat – or technically, competitive advantage, is a factor that could preserve (or even grow) earnings and cash flow.
  3. Time plays an important role, a high number of ROIC is useless if it can’t last in the long run. Time becomes the test for ROIC.
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Why do Businesses Focus on Community?


Figure 1: Blueprint of Acquisition Strategy

Since 2012, there are 3 acquisitions that attracts our attention: Adobe acquired Behance. And Microsoft acquired LinkedIn and GitHub. It is interesting to note that those three are like a community rather than a business. Why do businesses focus on community? To access more people or clients? We believe the answer is more than that.

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November 2021 Investing Insight


November 2021 Investing Insight deals with risk (again), time (again), the Requirement to be number 1 in the US stock market, and How far human emotion left behind its own achievements.
November’s idea comes to our mind

2021 is about recovery. Not only for the stock market but also for mankind. It is when vaccines get global and humans fight coronavirus back. For years, this is the best and maybe the happiest year for us. To see how people survive against the worst. But we won’t discuss it. November 2021 investing insight is a collection of our brainstorming with regard to market and investing. We make it into one article since it is too short to launch in one long post, but it is too precious to hide.

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